Thursday, April 12, 2007

Enrique Polazzo! Enrique Polazzo!

Actually, it's Placido Polanco, but it's fun to say his name like the crowd does after the queen is saved in The Naked Gun.

Polanco has been pretty much a one-trick pony the last few years - he's a steady .300 hitter. The Baseball Forecaster's Ron Shandler described him in his first weekly ESPN.com chat as someone who provides only "empty production."

But while that's been true for the past couple of years, Doc Gram is not sure that's necessarily true this year. He's been batting second in the Tigers' order, and if he can stay healthy, he may have more value than people are assigning him now. .300 hitters with 500 AB in the two slot nearly always get 90+ runs for the year.

That's still only two categories, as Polanco has slugged above .450 only once in his career. But no one would flinch if you picked up say, Brandon Inge, who provides only two categories as well, because they are HR and RBI, seen for some reason as more scarce. Don't forget there aren't that many .300 hitters each year either.

Polanco is not by any means going to tear up your league, and he shouldn't be used as a 3B or corner infielder in most formats, but he will provide you a good pickup option in deeper leagues if a second baseman or MI slot-filler goes down. If he stays healthy and in the two-slot in Detroit, he may give you more that that.

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Join the Right Guard Protest


As a paid subscriber to MLB.TV Premium, Doc Gram is staging a protest aimed at Right Guard deodorant.

It costs $19.95 per month to subscribe to MLB.TV Premium, which provides access to hundreds of MLB games over the Internet through a web browser. It's pretty damn cool to be able to watch the games online, but that's not what this is about.*

This is about having to watch the SAME 15 second Right Guard commercial over and over and over and over again. Every time you click on a new game. For fantasy baseball managers, this can mean once every two minutes. And that's why Doc is mad at Right Guard. Hell, come up with ... I don't know... TWO commercials and run them alternately.

It's the one you've seen on TV - where the couple is hiking and spots the serene scene of a deer grazing. The guy points it out, and suddenly the deer's eyes go red and he's foaming at the mouth, attacking. It was funny the first time. But not the second. And certainly not the 152nd. At this point, I'll take another round of that horrid Mellencamp Silverado commercial.

Doc Gram has thrown out his stick of Right Guard in protest and plans to use in its place a mix of infield grass, persimmon and Wrigley Ivy extract. It may still stink and cause minor irritation, but at least he won't be paying for it.

He encourages you to join the protest and invites suggestions on other ways to keep wetness and odor at bay.

* if you don't mind paying $5 more than last year, just so you can finally be presented with video that is visible to the naked eye. Or the fact that a good portion of weekend games are blacked out when FOX has a national broadcast. Or the fact that MLB Mosaic has yet to live up to any of its promises of six games on a single screen, still sputtering pixels and malfunctions in its second season. Doc Gram still pays. Doc Gram is a sucker.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Wheelerin' And Dealerin'

Brad Lidge, one of the league's best closers until his mojo was apparently stolen by Albert Pujols in Game 5 of the 2005 NLCS (2.60 ERA in three seasons previous, 5.52 since), has lost his job again, with the Astros giving the nod to Dan Wheeler, who got his first Save of 2007 yesterday.

Kudos to Doc Gram and others who drafted Wheeler for peanuts in anticipation of the final stages of Lidge's fall from grace. But more importantly, kudos to all those fantasy managers out there who didn't overpay for closers in a thin year. All three of you.

Most people took the lack of depth in this year's closers to be a signal to buy based on scarcity. In two leagues that Doc Gram snake-drafted, the front-line closers were all gone by the 10th round, and nearly any closer with any value gone by round 16.

This is just ridiculous. True, there are a handful of closers that always return value at the very top of the ranks, but in any given year, 20-33% of the closing roles change hands during the year - and this year it looks like it will be closer to 33%.

If you accept that idea, does it really make sense to spend high draft choices/big auction $ on 2nd tier closers (guys who get Saves but not much else)?

Think about it. Are the list of the #4-#10 closers EVER the same year to year? No, because it's just as much based on opportunity as ability.

The Save is the only stat in which the manager decides who receives it. Nothing but ability prevents batters from attaining any of their stats (maybe less so for SB). Nothing but talent precludes a a pitcher from a good WHIP and ERA - and even throwaway middle relievers can get Wins. But only the preordained get Saves.

And because the decision on who to crown Closer rests with the manager, there's going to be a lot more volatility. Managers more often try to put themselves in the best position to win that day and over the next week or two than they do to try to ascertain who will help them most over the course of a season or a few years. That's the GM's job.

Batters are also more likely to be seen as long-term investments compared with pitchers who many people think either have "it" or don't. An organization will give a struggling young batter a full year to prove himself. A manager will give a closer a full week.

The manager needs to win NOW, so he is necessarily impatient, and therefore more likely to make changes in those areas like closing role that are seen as his call.

What this means is that second-tier closers (those who don't earn outstanding WHIP, ERA, K/9) are only as good as their last start, and a single decision away from losing their sole statistical value. They are therefore at a significantly higher risk to fall short of their projected potentials. So why invest your picks or auction cash so deeply in them?

Don't say because of scarcity, because there will be around the same number of saves this year as there always are, even though it might be harder to find them in one neat package along with other desired skills. Scarcity is a good reason to pick a perennial lock on a good team like Mariano Rivera. It is not a good reason to pick Salomon Torres for $15.

Instead, do what Doc Gram did, and spend more of your picks/money on batters or starters, and then late in the draft or via waivers, take the best set-up men out there in terms of skills like ERA, WHIP and K/9 - there are several whose underlying skills are better than the closers they set up. They'll still provide minor value in those skill categories while they await their big shot. Plus, it's only a matter of time until some manager gets impatient somewhere and hands the car to someone else - and those with the best pitching skills will ultimately get the keys. Dan Wheeler is revving Doc Gram's engine as we speak.

Examples: Matt Capps, Jonathan Broxton, Justin Ducscherer, Mike Gonzales, Scott Linebrink

Saturday, April 7, 2007

Dating Barry Bonds

Having Barry Bonds on your fantasy team is like casually dating a sexy but slutty woman.

No matter how much you enjoy the sex, you know it's not heading toward a Happily-Ever-After.

But you do know what you're dealing with when you consort with a woman like this. So, from the beginning, you temper your expectations for the relationship.

You know what you're going to get out of Bonds. Swap out the cheap sex for cheap HRs.

You know you're not going to have a long term relationship - he's flawed and he could be gone any day - carrying with him his own baggage - injuries, failed drug tests, even federal grand juries.

Slutty girls usually don't have that many friends, at least not many lookers, and neither does Barry, at least in terms of fellow sluggers in his lineup. Barry may spend most of his year walking, as the lack of friends means no one's driving him around.

And even though a towering shot to center when you can get it might take you to some nice places, like the girl you'd only casually date, you can't really count on Bonds paying off on a day-to-day basis. He'll take the day off if he has to stay up late playing ball the night before an afternoon game. He'll act like a bitch in front of your friends. Sometimes he'll flake out completely, and miss a week on what sounds like a weak excuse, like a back strain or the flu.

And finally, like the slutty girl, you can't really brag about having Bonds on your roster. To those who don't know baseball but read the papers, they assume that EVERYONE wants Barry on their squads. To those who know baseball, but not fantasy baseball, they think you lovingly embrace the steroid era. And to those who know fantasy baseball, they assume that you haven't been paying attention since 2002.

But there's nothing wrong with getting that thing you need for as long as you can. So make hay while the sun shines. Enjoy your dirty Bonds love and hope you can make it to 30 dates (HR). But don't be surprised when his body or his past or his attitude make dropping him the best thing you could do for yourself.

Friday, April 6, 2007

Pitcher to Watch: Zach Greinke


Lost in Dice-K mania yesterday was the performance of Zach Greinke in yesterday's Red Sox/Royals matchup. Greinke scattered 8 hits over 7 strong innings, struck out 7 (including Big Papi 3x) to one walk, and gave up 1 earned run.

We all know Greinke missed virtually all of last season dealing with anxiety disorder problems, and the Royals deserve props for giving Greinke time and privacy to figure things out. What you may have forgotten is that Greinke is still only 23 years old, and it wasn't too long ago that he was being called a young Greg Maddux. In 2004 as a rookie, Greinke posted 8 wins, 100 K's, and an ERA of under 4.0 in 24 starts as a 20 year old. He digressed severely as a sophomore in 2005, adding almost two full runs to his ERA. He was out of baseball for the first half of 2006, but pitched most of the second half in the minors before a late cup of coffee in September.

Greinke had a great spring, and based on yesterday's performance, he should already be on your radar in mixed leagues. His porous team will suppress his win totals, but he could be a great bargain to snatch off the waiver wire and stick at the back of your rotation. 12 wins/135 K's/4.00 ERA/WHIP under 1.25 certainly looks feasible.

Three Sleeper Catchers

If you're in a single catcher roto league, and you don't have a top 5 catcher, it's pretty much anyone's guess as to who among the rest will finish in the top 12 for the year. The recent injury to Baltimore receiver Ramon Hernandez both supports that point and makes the question more relevant for those looking for a replacement. Here are three options that may not yet be tapped in your league.


1. Gerald Laird, TEX
UPSIDE: 500AB, .280, 20HR, 65RBI, 85R
LIKELY: 450 AB, .270, 15HR, 50RBI, 75R


2. Chris Iannetta, COL
UPSIDE: 500AB, .295, 15HR, 65RBI, 80R
LIKELY: 420AB, .285, 12HR, 50RBI, 55R



3. Josh Bard, SD
UPSIDE: 450AB, .295, 15 HR, 65RBI, 55R
LIKELY: 400AB, .290, 12HR, 55RBI, 45R

Thursday, April 5, 2007

Dice-10K





Daisuke Matsuzaka lived up to the hype in his first start for the Boston Red Sox, fanning ten and allowing six hits in a 4-1 victory over the Royals. Questions still swirl around him on whether the Japanese leagues' practice of pitching every seventh day means his arm will fall off in the Majors by July. Most people are putting the over/under around 15 wins and 180 Ks for 2007. But the Sawks couldn't have asked for a better debut, and if he does the same at Fenway next week, you'll have to start thinking that the $103 million pricetag will seem like grand larceny by October. Doc Gram guesses his value will end up being similar to Oswalt or Halladay once all is said and done, but would rather have one of the Roys for now.