Friday, March 23, 2007

Exploit Your League's Addictions


Every league has its own addictions. It starts with a few managers with an affinity for a certain stat category and proceeds from there, with the other managers feeling the need to add strength in that category to properly compete.

During the draft, HRs, SBs, and Saves are usually the drugs of choice, because they're generally considered the scarcest categories.

But does your league go overboard with one of these, more than the other? Are people drafting closers in the eighth round that play for teams that will be lucky to finish with 50 wins? Chad Cordero, anybody? Are managers taking guys who will hit .240 so they can get the chance for 30 HRs? Sammy Sosa, anybody?

These are buying opportunities for you. Don't get high on the secondhand crack smoke - draft a closer before you "lose out." During the eighth round when guys like Cordero are going, take another batter in a scarce position, say, a middle infielder, like Edgar Renteria. Draft a David DeJesus or Placido Polanco with that last "throwaway" pick instead of Sosa . .300 hitters aren't exactly a dime a dozen either, yet are often ignored, and they can come with Rs - even RBIs, if they land the right spots in their batting orders.

After the draft, people are always looking to vulture new closers and speed sources, but they still tend to ignore guys who don't do anything big in the HR/RBI/SB/W/S categories. So let R/AVG/K/WHIP/ERA be your domain, and take advantage of the crackheads in your league.

Friday, March 16, 2007

Two Reasons Why Johan is Not a First Rounder

We all agree that Johan is likely the best pitcher in the American League by a large margin. But is he worth taking in the first round? Doc Gram says no.

Two main reasons:

1. Pitchers are risky
Your first round draft choice MUST pay off. It should be a player with low relative risk - and all pitchers carry too much risk compared with batters. First, pitchers get injured more than batters. Second, they don't play everyday - which means when they go on the 15-day DL, they can miss 2-3 starts. Batters are generally going to get 5-10 planned days off the year just to stay fresh, and thus can make up missed time by playing during those previously scheduled days off. Pitchers can never get those missed starts back.

2. Elite batters are categorically more valuable
When you choose Johan in the first round, you're likely foregoing your only shot at 5-category players - guys like Carl Crawford, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, etc. Johan, or any other pitcher, can only bring you value in four categories at a time, and one of those - Wins - is really not in his control.