Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Free Jonny Gomes


Several years ago, Baseball Prospectus started a grassroots effort to “Free Erubiel Durazo.” It’s hard to believe now, but in the late '90s, Durazo was a stud prospect for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Late to arrive to the U.S. from Mexico, Durazo absolutely destroyed minor league pitching as a 25-year old and was the prototypical Billy Beane type of player — high OBP guy with tons of power. But he also produced Ty Cobb-like batting averages his first year in the minors. Seriously, check out this dude's minor league stats. Ridonkulous. Arizona quickly promoted him and he didn’t disappoint. In 155 AB’s as a rook, he hit .329 with 11 dongs and an OPS of 1,016. Oh my.

Durazo went into 2000 as the full-time starter at first base for the D’Backs and picked up right where he left off during his debut, peaking at .346 and a 1,090 OPS on May 7 of that year. But it was all downhill from there. Durazo went into a deep slump and the D’Backs eventually demoted him. From 2000-2002, Durazo would only average 197 ABs for the big club, while shuttling to and from the minors and spending his age 27 and 28 seasons playing backup to the aging and overrated Mark Grace.

The guys at BP were obviously horrified by this. Guys with Durazo’s track record deserve more than one chance and the D’Backs never gave it to him. Sure, they were contenders in those days and even won a ring, but it wouldn’t have killed them to find out what kind of player Durazo really was. Durazo eventually got out of Arizona, shockingly signed with the Oakland A’s, and made a full-time DH for 2003 and 2004. He acquitted himself pretty nicely as born-again full timer, but he was never became the guy that BP hoped for. Durazo is now out of baseball after a last minute cut by Oakland this spring.

Which brings me to Jonny Gomes of the Devil Rays. He’s got a very similar profile to Durazo, without the Honus Wagner averages in the minor leagues. He broke through with Tampa Bay in 2005, hitting 21 homers in 348 ABs. Last year, he started like gangbusters, hitting 11 homers in April, before a shoulder injury caused him to go into a horrid free-fall, before they finally ended his season with surgery in August. You would think that given his 2005 and early 2006, an organization like the Devil Rays would be more than happy to pencil Gomes back into their lineup for 2007.

Think again. Gomes barely even made the major league roster this spring, with the Devil Rays going all in with their young pups – Elijah Dukes, Delmon Young, and BJ Upton. With Ty Wiggington apparently a fixture at first base, it looks like Gomes is in for a lost season barring a couple injuries or bad slumps by the young'ins. He’s 26 years old. His time is now. Either the Devil Rays should play him or trade him to a team that needs a power hitter —the Nationals perhaps? It wouldn’t surprise anyone if he was playing across the Bay by July. Somebody needs to give 500 ABs to Gomes and it needs to happen now before he gets Durazo’ed.

Free Jonny Gomes!

1 snarky comments:

Doc Gram said...

With Shoeless Joe most of the way on the post, but - Mark Grace -OVERRRATED?

This, readers is coming from the man who defends Cal Ripken.

Take a look at a comparison of runs created:

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=56&playerid2=1010978&playerid3=&position=1B&page=8&type=full