Two Reasons Why Johan is Not a First Rounder

We all agree that Johan is likely the best pitcher in the American League by a large margin. But is he worth taking in the first round? Doc Gram says no. Two main reasons: 1. Pitchers are risky Your first round draft choice MUST pay off. It should be a player with low relative risk - and all pitchers carry too much risk compared with batters. First, pitchers get injured more than batters. Second, they don't play everyday - which means when they go on the 15-day DL, they can miss 2-3 starts. Batters are generally going to get 5-10 planned days off the year just to stay fresh, and thus can make up missed time by playing during those previously scheduled days off. Pitchers can never get those missed starts back. 2. Elite batters are categorically more valuable When you choose Johan in the first round, you're likely foregoing your only shot at 5-category players - guys like Carl Crawford, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, etc. Johan, or any other pitcher, can only bring you value in four categories at a time, and one of those - Wins - is really not in his control.